Three scenarios for how electric car figures will develop
The Vienna University of Technology has conducted a study on behalf of Wien Energie on the development of e-car figures in the Greater Vienna metropolitan area. The run-up curves for electric cars and charging stations until 2030 were determined on the basis of three different scenarios:
- Scenario: The development of figures without e-mobility being promoted through transport and environmental policy.
- Scenario: The development of figures when implementing the former BMVIT’s campaign to promote e-mobility. This includes an e-mobility bonus covering part of the costs of acquiring an electric car and private charging infrastructure or incentives for companies, municipalities and associations.
- Scenario: The development when implementing the campaign plus the expansion of the public charging infrastructure being promoted.
Active promotion and expansion of infrastructure are having an effect
If existing measures are continued, the study predicts that there will be over 80,000 e-cars registered in 2030, which means that, according to the study, around 8,000 charging points will be needed to meet this demand. If the current policy measures were dropped, the number of e-vehicles would only increase to about 31,000 vehicles, a figure that is too low to meet the climate targets.
In addition to the urban area of Vienna, the study also examined the developments for Lower Austria and the area immediately surrounding Vienna. This forecast shows an increase to 142,900 e-cars in Lower Austria in 2030. These figures are highly relevant when it comes to calculating the demand for charging infrastructure in Vienna because of the commuter effect.
“The study shows that the number of e-cars registered in Vienna will increase from around 1,400 vehicles today (2017) to over 80,000 in 2030. The success of e-mobility hangs on having strong infrastructure, a fact recognised by Wien Energie at an early stage. By 2020, we will have built 1,500 public charging points in Vienna,” explains Michael Strebl, General Manager of Wien Energie.
Expanding the infrastructure to ensure success
According to the study, key factors influencing the breakthrough of e-mobility include the costs of acquisition, operating costs, range and, above all, the demand-oriented expansion of the public charging infrastructure. However, work to expand the private charging infrastructure must also be correspondingly continued as well so as to be able to guarantee the optimum framework conditions for enabling the breakthrough of e-mobility.